If I Were Bill Belichick (Pats vs Chiefs 2)

Looking back to the Chargers game, it was very effective to throw out the tendencies of the past against that opponent. For example, take the opening kickoff, march for a score and then blitz all afternoon. Don't defer and abandon"Bend/Don't Break."

Philip Rivers spent most of the game crying to the officials about his treatment because it really was brutal---but it was also legitimate and within the rules.

Against the Chiefs, it would be great to do that again, but what would work? Maybe some of the same tactics, maybe something new.

Well, Bill B. has one basic strategy, which is to take away the strength of the other team and let them try to beat you with one hand tied behind their backs. What is the Chiefs' strength? You guessed it: PH II.

But how do you take him out of the game? Unlike Rivers, he can't be blitzed because he can scramble out of the pocket and pass sidearm, or left-handed (!) or run for a bunch of yards himself.

I suggest that he do the following things:

(1)  If the Pats win the toss, defer. It will be tough to score on the first possession because it will be cold and the Arrowhead crowd will be into it, making signal calling difficult. The goal is to stop Mahomes first time around and then try to score.

(2)  Tell the offense they have to win the game. Tell them, "The defense is like the Spartans at Thermopylae, holding the pass against impossible odds until reinforcements can arrive. You need to match what you did against the Chargers (40-plus point) and we'll ask the same of our 'Spartans' on defense."

(3)  Come out passing. After Sony's performance last week, they will be looking for the run. Use James White a lot; you can always depend on him. Also, no one is paying attention to Hogan these days. Throw a few bombs his way. Maybe start running in the second half.

(4)  Use Cronk as a secret weapon in the fourth quarter: everyone has bought into the "He's a shell of his former self" idea. And the concept that he is just a blocker. Confirm that perspective for three quarters and then start throwing to him. We've seen Cronk take over in the final period before. It is very possible the Pats will be behind at this point and will need to do something totally different. The Chiefs will be overly confident if they are ahead, and will be surprised by a "Cronk attack."

(5) The key: if you can't take away Mahomes, take away his receivers. Do whatever you can to stop Kelcey and Hill. Double-team one, then double-team the other. Confuse them. Mahomes is great, but he needs people to catch the ball when he throws it. Bottling up the receivers will lead to interceptions.

Following this plan might, just might, lead to a final score of 35-27 Pats or 42-27, something like that. Again, though, that is pure guesswork.

A final note: Football is a simulation of a battle. In the history of warfare, a couple of things stand out: "It is indeed always darkest before the dawn" and "The element of surprise is critical." I could cite a lot of examples, but this post is already too long. My point is: don't despair if the Pats fall behind and have something ready for the Fourth Quarter, like the "Cronk attack." (Or bring in Malcolm Butler; just kidding!)

Hey, what would you do if you were Bill?

The great thing about football: it really isn't warfare, it's entertainment.

So I say "Go Pats" and enjoy the show!

Pats vs Pat

Patrick Mahomes' mother has said of him that, because his father was a major league baseball player, and he grew up playing catch with the likes of A-Rod, he doesn't get too excited about anything. This was in an SI article I read about him that was very revealing. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/05/patrick-mahomes-kansas-city-chiefs-high-school-texas-tech-parents-andy-reid

She also said that when they took him to Disneyland and places that usually impressed little kids, "He didn't get too excited there either," or something to that effect.

That sounds a lot like the Patriots' mantra, "Not too high, not too low." When you combine it with extraordinary talent, it's a recipe for success. Forget that he is a rookie on a big stage. He is not likely to get rattled and throw the game away (literally and figuratively).

One other thing: the article said that he almost quit football growing up in Tyler, Texas, because the coach wouldn't let him play quarterback. That suggests someone who knows his own mind and is willing to give up a lot to get what he wants. He was also a very good baseball and basketball player, so he thought he might concentrate on those sports.

Growing up in Mississippi, I played a little bit of junior high and high school football, and I know something about quitting the football team. In Meridian, Miss., you could not quit without having a one-on-one meeting with our head coach, whose nickname was "Dawg." As I recall, he had been a guard at Alabama and he was tough, really tough. If he didn't like the way you were blocking on the practice field, he would get down, without pads, and go one-on-one with you, right then and there. I had to quit the team to get a job and help support my family, so I had to have that meeting with Dawg. He wasn't too hard on me but it wasn't a pleasant encounter and I suspect Mahomes would have had to go through something similar to quit the Tyler East squad.


Why didn't he quit football? According to the SI article, it was because no one went to the baseball and basketball games and everyone went to football games. He didn't want to excel without an audience! That suggests someone who knows he is talented and wants to be appreciated for it.

All of this and his teammates on the Chiefs say he is quiet and modest!

Why am I going on and on about Mahomes? Well, the question before the Patriots is, "How do you beat somebody like that?" And make no mistake about it: that is who they have to beat, not the Chiefs. They are a very good team, but the Pats just beat a very good team by flummoxing their very good quarterback. Mahomes is more than "very good," he is a transcendent talent and the Pats will lose if they don't figure him out.

When I posted about the Chargers and the Pats (a post I should now dub "Charge(rs) Account Canceled"), I realized something about football: just about everybody was predicting the outcome of the game before it happened. When I wrote the blog, I started describing what I thought our guys needed to do to win the game. I would much rather do that for many reasons. The main one is that I don't want to predict a Patriot loss! If I did, my ego would be rooting against them because I would want to be right. However, my heart would be with the B/B gang, and I would spend the whole game conflicted.

Prediction, no matter how much data you have from the past, is just a guess anyway. Each game is unique and there are elements to it that elude predictive analysis. It's fun, but not very realistic.

In my next post, then, I will share what I would do if I were Bill B.

Pats vs. Chargers

Here's my take on today's game: even the local "Homers" on Talk Radio are giving it to the Chargers. Even though the Pats are "favored," everyone seems to be betting on the Chargers. They are a very good team and I thought for a few days they would win, I also think the Pats like being underdogs.

Everyone also thinks Gronk will be a blocker today and the Pats will run the ball a lot. What a setup! I think they should come out throwing and that Gronk can have a great day. Also, do not count out James White.

I also have a reason they will win that has to do with playing at home, which I will share with you inn another post.

I will say 31-21 Pats, but that is just a guess.

Another topic of conversation in New England is whether this is the "End of the Brady-Belichick Era."

I think we are close to it, regardless of today's game. I still think Bill has lost the team, even though they recently won two easy games. All empires must fall, as Larry Lucchino famously said, and this one is no exception. Actually, why don't we look forward to it, just a little? As enjoyable as the winning has been, wouldn't a changing of the guard be interesting?